Sometimes there's just too much stuff that's important that I want to get out. So this one was on the back-burner for a few days. Still important, though. Is the chain restaurant again, wolfstreet.Com Is the chain restaurant recession becoming structural? So I'm like, Ok, retail auto loan, sub-prime, just auto sales apocolypse that's two apocolypses.
How about a third one, right? "Three's the charm." Here's the third one. Restaurant recession. Now I did tell you, a little while back, Subway stores Subwaaaay No longer the pedophile role-model of what's-his-nameJared Jared's gone now. Little pedophile problems.
But, uh, They had to close, like, 349 or something stores that just happened to be in the US, but other countriesthey're expanding. First time, I think, they said, in 50 years 50 years, and like Isaid before, they skated through 2000 dot com crash/bubble. They skated through 2008-09 crash, no problem. But we're not in a crash.
We're not in a crash right now. We're not in ayou know.... What's going on? It's like, because normally you look at the stock market and that's, like, the defining moment of crash, recession, something, you know but since they've falsely pumped it up, it's like that stuff's here crash or recession, whatever you want to call it, is here without the stock market crash Confusing. The stuff is here...
That goes with the stock market crash. People, you know, recession kicking in sales down everywhere, stores closing, you know. The crap I'm telling you every single day. The market looks phenomenal.
The market looks great. USA must be doing great, man. But it's not. A 15-month downturn here goes longest since 2009 and no end in sight.
"There's simply no respite for chain restaurants. Industry-wide, same-store sales fell again in May." "The last time, same-store sales actually rose year-over-year was in February 2016." "On that basis, the chain-restaurant recession is now in its 15th month,..." So again, one off, little blip Did you go back and revise something? No. This is a trend, my friends. And it's not just here.
It's Retail Apocolypse, Auto Sales Apocolypse, this is all together. So if you have all these differentlyall completely different industries, not even kind of related fast food chains, restaurants, etc., Not necessarily "fast food," but they are certainly chain ones. Cars. Car loans and the sub-prime loans over there.
And then... You've seen housing and all of a sudden, Toronto's Ooo, did they get slammed the other day. Looks like we're right at that peak. You see all these different industries, and they have the same issues, essentially, recession issues.
This is this recessionary stuff, here. If it looks like a recession, walks like a recession, even quacks like a recession, It's a recession. "But the markets are up, so it can't be a recession!" Got it, got it, got it. Go ahead.
Let me continue. So yeah, "On that basis, the chain-restaurant recession is now in its 15th month, the longest downturn"another
stretch of, you know, the longest length of a downturn "since the Financial Crisis." Of '09. "In May, same store sales fell 1.1% Year-over-year." Same-store foot traffic fell 3.0%. "Food sales were down, and alcohol" Woah! No, no, no, no, no, no.
No, I'm not reading that right. "... And alcohol sales were down..." ?! People must be broke these days! "...According to TDn2Ks Restaurant Industry Snapshot,..." "... Tracking sales at 27,000 restaurant units from 155 brands, generating about $67 billion in annual revenue." "But the average amount of the check per person increased by 2%,..." "...
And not because they ordered more food and booze, but because prices rose." Federal Reserve says inflation is not... ...Hardly anything at all. But they don't look at food prices and they don't look at energy. Ok, got it.
Right. Gosh, silly me. "Florida was the,..." Ooo! Florida! Hey! Jsnip, here! :D. Florida guy.
"Florida was the least bad region,.." No kidding! "...With same-store sales up..." "...0.1%" Ok, that's nothing to brag about. "And foot traffic...." Rather than being down 3% like the other one, was only down 1.9%. "Texas was the worst region with sales down 2.4% And foot traffic down 4.3%." "Of the 196 markets, 140 (71%) experienced sales declines." That's nearly three-quarters showing sales declines. "The report as the reports in prior months is perplexed by the long downturn:" "Recently, there has been an upturn in retail spending on most goods and services.
That stands in stark contrast to the continued decline in sales growth at restaurants." "This change in consumer spending patterns was..." "... Identified about a year ago, and how much longer it will continue is unclear." "Now the hope is that year-over-year sales comparisons this year will look less bad ..." "... Based on the relatively soft sales last year." "That has been the hope for months, and it hasnt happened yet." "But the pain is not evenly spread in this sector," "... According to the Restaurant Industry Snapshot:" "Dine-in sales have been negative year-to-date, but to-go is up 2.9%." "Sales are also up in catering, delivery, and drive-thru." So, now, that's interesting.
At least, drive-thru and, uh, to-go To-go stuff is up 2.9% Is that because people say, "Oh honey, I don't want to go sit down, and leave a tip,..." "Yeah let's just order it to-go, so we don't have to do that." Is that what that means? It could. Just gonna throw that out there. "Breakfast and mid-afternoon sales offer..." "...Continued opportunities for growth, while lunch and, especially, dinner sales continue to stumble." "While sales in May were weak across all segments, ..." "...The fine dining segment was able to achieve very small positive same-store sales growth. " "Until May, that sector had done well.
Now it too is losing its edge." "All segments were weak, but the least weak were at the top of the price spectrum..." " (Dining experience) " "... And at the bottom (value and convenience). " "Everything in between was particularly weak." "The weakest performing segment in May was casual dining." "This was a bit unexpected since the segment showed improved performance during the first four months of 2017 after lagging..." "... The industry for several years.
Casual dining has added a modest number of new units, but same-store sales..." "... Declines have contributed to its overall loss in market share." "Despite weak sales results year-to-date, fast casual continues to win the market share battle." "It gained the most share in the first quarter of 2017 compared with the same quarter a year ago. " "Aggressive expansion has driven total sales growth, but increased competition and market build-out have undoubtedly impacted same-store sales for the segment. " "The only other segment that gained market share year-over-year was quick service." You know, "let's go in for a quickie." Not THAT kind of quickie.
;) ;) ;) "The chain restaurants 15-month travails contrast with overall sales at 'food services and drinking places,'..." "... According to Census Bureau retail data." "In 2016, sales at these places rose 5.5% To $657.8 Billion." " In April, the most recent data available, sales rose 3.9% Year-over-year to a record $56.6 Billion." (Graph in article) Sales at "Food Services and Drinking Places". So... Is that, like, bars? People wanna drink their, you know, sorrows and worries and Paycheck-to-paycheck worries over? I mean, is that what that is? "Since January 2010, nominal sales at food services and drinking places (then at $37.5 Billion) have surged 51%, in part due to price increases: ".
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